What have the coming 12 months got in store for us?

In these uncertain times only a fool would stick his neck out with New Year predictions. So here goes.

ISRAEL: There's an election on the horizon, but it won't be like a British election.

Our "first past the post" electoral system has many flaws - in particular, it denies smaller parties proper representation in Parliament.

On the other hand it has certain distinct advantages - smaller parties are denied proper representation in Parliament. Even better, very small parties comprising mainly crackpots, single issue fanatics and extremists of both the left and right are virtually excluded altogether.

As a consequence, most of the seats are won by moderate politicians who, for all their failings, have serious plans for government.

The very small number of parties also means that usually one of them can form an absolute majority in Parliament and govern effectively (if not always wisely) for the next four or five years.

It's not like that at all in Israel with their current proportional representation system.

Nutcases can get elected by securing just two per cent of the national vote. So you end up with a plethora of parties, none of which is able to form a government by itself.

Invariably, coalitions of the "usual suspects" are formed, which only last until someone gets broiges with someone else and another election has to be called (every two years on average).

Worst of all, governments find it impossible to govern, their attention being focused instead on keeping the coalition together.

So don't worry about who is going to win the election in February. Neither Livni nor Netanyahu is going to achieve anything like a majority of Knesset seats.

As one commentator remarked a few years ago: "It doesn't matter who we vote for - we always end up with Shimon Peres."

Peres isn't in the running this time, but expect Shas and other "crazies" to feature yet again in the new government.

The resulting paralysis is inevitable, both in domestic policy and vis-a-vis Israel's neighbours. Which brings me neatly to my next prediction.

THE ARAB STATES: Everyone says that the Arabs really, truly, deeply, genuinely want peace with Israel. No one I have met believes it. I certainly don't.

Does this mean that "the man on the Damascus omnibus" wants war? I doubt it, particularly if he and his family are required to make the ultimate sacrifice.

Yet I can't help feeling that over decades, hatred of Israel has become ingrained in the Arab psyche. It gives meaning to life which in many parts of the Arab world is deprived both economically and politically.

The Arab leaders, whatever their private views, know they risk public revolt if they are seen to be making genuine overtures towards the Zionist regime.

So they engage in a political dance that shows to the Americans that they are doing their best to be constructive while at the same time ensuring that nothing ever comes of it.

The Syrians and the Saudis are masters at this and will keep dancing through 2009.

The Palestinians' Mahmoud Abbas' terrorist regime on the West Bank will be doing well if they are still in charge at the end of 2009 and not the victims of a Hamas-led coup.

Israel's most immediate problem has to be keeping a lid on the Gaza situation while preventing it spreading to other territories. It won't be easy and might involve taking some tough and unpopular decisions that bring opprobrium from the rest of the world.

KOSHER MEAT PRICES: Has anyone seen or heard from any of our (eight) shechita organisations these past few months? Are they sunning themselves in the Bahamas? Perhaps they have been wiped out by a virus, like the one in Survivors.

By the way, I'm glad the BBC series Survivors is finished. It was giving me nightmares. If you missed it, imagine a worldwide plague that, in days, kills off 95.5 per cent of the population.

Survivors are reduced to scavenging for food and bottled water in wrecked supermarkets and in the homes of the recently deceased.

The handful of British survivors on whom the series focused were a multicultural bunch with blacks and Muslims over-represented in a typically BBC way.

Mind you, there were no Jews. It's easy to see why. A survival rate of 0.5 per cent would have left just 1,500 Jews alive in the UK and they would obviously have been too busy building rival shuls as well as competing charities and multiple shechita organisations to make any meaningful contribution to the storyline.

If plague isn't the reason, how come the shechita bodies have got nothing to say for themselves despite the furore these past few weeks?

Are they, as some have suggested, lying low until all the fuss has died down and it's back to business as usual?

Do they really hold the Jewish public in such contempt that they feel they can ignore us?

What do you think?

One thing I can predict for certain. Nothing will change unless we force it to change.

It's up to us to use 2009 to challenge our "elders and betters" to justify the astronomical prices charged for kosher meat in the North and Scotland and to provide coherent and credible reasons (not just waffle) why huge savings cannot be made by amalgamating the eight shechita bodies into just one or two.

Please note. The folks in charge cannot have it both ways - they cannot explain that prices are high because the consumer market is small while at the same time justifying the need for multiple organisations to regulate that market.

Affordable kosher meat in 2009? If you will it, it is no dream.

E-MAIL: sdorfman@jewishtelegraph.com